Response to comment

Sorry I can't figure out how to respond to the previous comment so I'll do it as a new blog. Here is the comment and my response:

"I've heard it posited that poker is a game of skill, not luck. Is it skill when you win and bad luck when you lose?"


Poker is indeed a game of skill infused with an element of chance. It is a game in which mathematical odds and probability play a key role. For example, let’s say that you flop a flush draw and your chances of hitting a flush by the river are about 1 in 3 and if you hit the flush your chances of winning are close to 100%. Good players know that as a general rule if your anticipated return is more than 3 to 1 it is a good play to try to hit the flush, and conversely as a general rule if the return is going to be smaller than 3 to 1, the cards should be mucked. Other factors come into play as well, most importantly who your opponent is. If it is someone who easily folds his cards then a raise may be in order as a semi-bluff (a hand which is the worst hand at the moment but has a chance to significantly improve) If however the opponent is someone difficult to bluff then there is much more of an incentive to stick with the math. Good players understand this. Bad players do not. Bad players often play for the flush when they are assured of not getting at least a 3 to 1 return. This is a recipe for long-term disaster. But let’s go back to the good player. He faces a guarantee of getting 5 to 1 if he hits his 3 to 1 longshot. Any mathematician will tell you that in the long run this is an absolute winner. And so the good player puts his money in with a 34% chance of winning a 60% return. But he loses – and he does it again – and he loses and he does it 5 more times – and loses each time. It is as if he makes a bet that he can flip a coin 10 times and if at least 1 heads lands he wins the bet. He is of course a more than 1000 to 1 favorite – and yet it is conceivable that he could lose in the short run. Call it variance or luck or whatever you wish but for good players who make mathematically and psychologically sound decisions the answer to your question is an emphatic yes.