I love the Parx Casino. It is only a forty minute drive for me and I have a lot of friends among the players, dealers and floor people. The poker room is very professionally run and for a while I staked my claim in the high limit room. But now I have been forced to reevaluate and while I am not a superstitious person by nature, I have convinced myself that I cannot win in their cash games. I may be off base but I have also convinced myself that I am blameless and that the fault lies in the fall of the cards and the bad play of others. This is a situation that has been going on for quite some time and recently I have avoided the Parx, giving things an opporunity to settle down. Today I decided to test the waters again. There was no 10-10 game when I arrived so I played 2-5 in a slow grinding game but was ahead a few hundred dollars when they called a 10-10 game. I spoke with my friend Brian who agreed that the field looked soft and we sat down. For the first couple of hours I slowly built my stack further, although I had few playable hands. And then in a half hour period the following three hands sent me from the casino knowing that I should never look back. I lay them out here step by step and would love to know whether any of you poker players disagree with my play, and why.
Hand number one: A new player to the table who I know as being very aggressive raises to 50 and gets a caller. I call with K-9 of clubs on the button. The flop is 9-7-3 with two diamonds. He bets $120 and the other player mucks. What would you do? I called the bet. The turn is a king of diamonds giving me top two pair and putting three diamonds on the board. Again he bets $120. What would you do? I raised to $360 and here is why. He was the preflop raiser with a wide range of possible hands. His having two diamonds would be unlikely. He flat called my raise. I now put him most likely on a hand like A-K or K-Q with a big diamond. The river was a 5 of clubs and he checked. What would you do? I am a big proponent of value betting and with top two pair was confident that I was ahead so I bet 500 and he called, turning up 2-4 of diamonds.
Hand number two: A player raised to $50 and three people called so I called with J-10 offsuit on the button. The flop was J-5-3 with 2 hearts. One of the blinds bet out $100 and three other players called. What would you do? I flat called the hundred. The turn was a 10 of diamonds giving me top two pair. Everyone checked to me. There was over 600 in the pot. What would you do? I bet 600 hoping to end the hand there, strongly believing I had the best hand. The original bettor folded and the kid to his left then went all-in for $1500 followed by an over the top all-in from the aggressive player from hand one. How on earth can you put either one on a set when the flop had two hearts and especially when a blank hit the turn and they both checked? Only a truly bad player would have played a set that way. Unfortunately I ran into a truly bad player with pocket 5s and the only card that could cost me was a non-heart 10.
Hand number 3: The very next round I had pocket kings under the gun. The player to my left had just commented that if he had my luck he would be tilting so when I raised to 50 and he made it 150 I focused on the possibility that he thought I was tilting rather than the possibility that FOR THE SIXTH TIME IN A ROW AT PARX SOMEONE WOULD HAVE POCKET ACES WHEN I HAD POCKET KINGS. Even so my immediate reaction was to slow play the kings but that decision was taken from me when 3 other players called the 150. I had 1200 left and the reraiser had me covered. What would you do? I raised to 750 and he went all in which meant another 450 to me. But before I could call two other players called his all-in for more than 1000 each. Of course I had to call. He turned up his pocket aces and we both lost to a guy who played 7-8 suited when two 7s hit the flop.
My work here (and there) is done!
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Hi uncle Marv. It's Lenny! As I know you are a much more experienced than I, But I have a few comments. Hand 1....I think, in position, you should have invoked the 'only getting called on the river if you're beat' rule and saved 500. Other than that, well played. Hand 2....while it was cheap, you should have raised the flop and found out where you were. Then you would have known that you were up against a bigger pair or a sneaky set. You could have got away from it after that info came in. Hand 3.....as we all know almost no one folds kings ever. It is what it is. Hope your luck changes soon!!
ReplyDeleteHey Marv, I'm one of those young aggressive internet guys, played with you a few times at Parx a while ago and I think we had mutual respect for each other's games.
ReplyDeleteHand 1 is reasonable enough, you're going for somewhat thin value but I think that's a good thing to do in these games. You may go with a smaller bet on the river. I agree that AK or KQ with a diamond are hands that your opponent would play that way all the time, as well as various smaller two pair depending on his preflop play (as it turns out, if he has 42s, he probably has K7s and 97s too). But, if he did have a small flush or a set, he'd also probably play the hand exactly the same way. There are only 4 ways he can have a top pair hand (two AdK combos, two QdK combos), probably between 0-6 two pair combos, and the full 3 combos of each set. So even before flushes are considered, he's probably got more sets than hands you beat. Add in some smallish flushes, at least a few combos and possibly as high as 20ish, and you arguably have the best hand less than half the time on the river. That alone doesn't rule out a value bet, but it probably rules out a big value bet... betting 500 into 1100 is a "big" bet in a live game and I feel like you've made it pretty hard for him to call the turn raise and big river bet with just a pair. Keep in mind that your hand looks a lot like a flush. He may fold many of the smaller two pairs as well. However, he will probably never fold a set or flush. So betting the river at all is a bit tenuous since only a few of his hands may call, and if I did bet the river, I might aim smaller.
Hand 2 is the bigger mistake I think. The problem here is similar in that your bet size on the turn is too big and should only get action from hands you beat or tie. It's different than Hand 1 because, as you recognize, you are extremely likely to have the best hand. I agree that, going into your turn bet, sets are very unlikely! But betting the full 600 into 600 makes it very hard for AJ to call, and lower two pairs are also extremely unlikely. Certainly any draw will fold for a smaller bet too, unless it's a monster 15-outer that wants to get frisky. Anyway, even though you're probably up against a set 1% of the time as you make your bet, once you get moved all in on AND called by another player, sets become really likely. The check-raiser can't be doing this with value hands other than JT or sets or a big draw or maybe some spazzy rag two pair, and probably doesn't have many bluffs either as you've priced yourself in by betting so big. You're kinda chopping at best with him. The cold-caller almost has to have exactly a 15-out draw, JT, or a set, and he should consider folding JT. So you can almost fold when it gets back to you, and you could definitely fold if you made a more "normal" bet size on the turn in the ~400 range. Your large bet size both made it tough to get called by worse hands and led you to be locked in against a checkraise. Sets were unlikely, but once they checkraise, hands other than sets are also very unlikely!
Hand 3 is super standard, no reason to even think about getting away from it for 100bb when two idiots flat the 3bet, this one's pure bad beat.
Hope you start running better but you should drop this superstitious nonsense... you strike me as a smarter guy than that! Good playing with you and GL.
Hey Lenny great to hear from you. Hope all is well. Thanks for the input. Everyone has different ideas and I guess that's what makes poker. Aside from the Parx I'm doing fine. Say hi to Mikey Liquor if you speak to him.
ReplyDeleteBest wishes!
Thanks for the very well thought out and expressed analysis Mike but I did not follow your one parenthetical comment about hand 1 (having k7s and 97s). If I ever do return to the Parx (which of course I will) please let me know who you are. Believe me I'm really not superstitious but I've lost hands at the Parx that defy the imagination. (I fastplayed a flopped set of aces against Uly in a 10-25 game to a board of A-Q-4 rainbow and bet 800 when a 7 hit the turn. How could I lose but I did. and of course the worst ever when I limped with pocket jacks and during the deal the dealer flipped a 10 which became the burn card. the flop was J-10-10. How could I possibly lose yet i lost) but of course everyone has bad beat stories so I have to get past this.
ReplyDeleteAs for your analysis of Hand 1 it is right on target. I simply discounted the flush because I concluded (wrongly) that if he raised with suited cards at least one would be high and he would either three-bet my turn raise or bet out on the river if a fourth diamond didn't hit. When he did neither I concluded that he much more likely had a big king with a diamond than a set (although of course either was entirely possible) and he was an aggressive enough player for me to roll the dice and bet 500 for value hoping he would convince himself to make a bad call. I have found this to happen more often in the long run but of course in hindsight I wish I had followed your line of thought instead. As for Hand 2 I sensed weakness (wrongly again) and wanted to end the hand on the turn hence the pot sized bet. Again in hindsight it made no sense to me that a player would slow-play a set in that situation and I could see the raiser putting me on a move since I was last to act and making that move with a big draw. I could then see the aggressive player behind him (if he read the hand as I did) even making his move with something like a big jack or of course a big draw. The possibility of chopping with a J-10 also entered my mind but with the pot as it was and a third player in, I would be happy to chop the pot. Anyway I apporeciate your input. It is helping me reevaluate my thought processes. Good luck at the tables!